RZH Insights: When the Noise is Loudest, the Plan Matters Most
Is your head spinning and your stomach upset given today’s news cycle? You’re not alone.
In just the first ninety days of this year, we have witnessed an extraordinary convergence of economic, political, and market events – each one, on its own, capable of unsettling most investors. From geopolitical conflicts and unexpected policy developments, to sharp rotations within equity markets, surprise economic data, and moments of outright panic driven by speculative forecasts – the backdrop has been, by any measure, chaotic.
- The United States undertook a highly unconventional geopolitical action, removing Venezuela’s president from power and detaining him on U.S. soil.
- The U.S. administration publicly entertained the strategic acquisition of Greenland.
- The Supreme Court invalidated key tariff measures enacted under emergency economic authority.
- The price of Bitcoin declined by 50%, reinforcing both its volatility and uncertainty surrounding its role as a reliable store of wealth1.
- The opening stages of the midterm election cycle began, introducing the potential for a meaningful shift in Congressional control.
- Equity markets experienced a pronounced rotation from growth to value with AI euphoria shifting from unbridled optimism to worrisome distrust.
- Civil unrest intensified across the country, culminating in fatal and widely covered confrontations between federal agents and protesters in Minneapolis.
- A little known researcher, suggesting the possibility of severe economic contraction and unemployment levels of 10%, triggered a sharp, albeit temporary, bout of market anxiety2.
- Silver prices surged dramatically before experiencing a historic one-day collapse of 35%3, underscoring the speculative nature of the commodity markets.
- The United States and Israel dismantled leadership in Iran, contributed to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and drove a significant spike in oil prices.
- “Private Credit” often-believed to be an exclusive asset class of the wealthy and institutions began weakening and faced massive redemptions4.
- A YouTube journalist uncovered what appeared to be extensive fraud in Minnesota and California, revealing evidence of widespread misuse of taxpayer funds and prompting public scrutiny5.
- Financial journalism once again pronounces that there is “no end in sight”.
And yet the US stock market is only down about 5% for the year, after doubling from just over three years ago6.
The Illusion of Urgency
Periods like this create a powerful – and very human – urge to act. To “do something.” To adjust. To protect.
This instinct is not irrational. It is simply misplaced.
The reality is that markets are always processing uncertainty. What changes is not the presence of risk, but the intensity of the narrative surrounding it. Today’s headlines feel urgent because they are delivered with relentless frequency and amplified emotion.
But here is the critical distinction:
Current events feel unprecedented in the moment – but they are entirely consistent with history.
NONE of the crises that I have written about over the last two decades kept the stock market from attaining an all-time high – JUST TWO MONTHS AGO7.
And that is why we should never make rational long-term investment policy out of current events.
The Core Principle: Plans, Not Predictions
At RZH, we operate from a foundational belief:
Long-term investment success is not achieved by reacting to current events. It is achieved by executing a disciplined plan – which accounts for interim risk and volatility.
Your financial plan was not built assuming only calm markets. It was built precisely for moments like this.
It reflects:
- Your near-term needs and long-term objectives
- The time horizon required to achieve them
- The liquidity needed to ensure full attainment of these objectives
- The historical realities of market returns – including volatility and bear markets
- A diversified portfolio designed to protect short-term needs and capture premium returns over time
None of those inputs have changed. What has changed is the level of noise.
Why Reacting Fails
No advisor – no matter how experienced – can consistently predict:
- The path of the economy
- The occurence or resolution of geopolitical events
- The short-term direction of markets
More importantly:
Even if one could predict these events, translating that into consistently successful portfolio decisions is virtually impossible.
History is unequivocal on this point.
Investors who attempt to navigate each crisis:
- Tend to sell when uncertainty is highest
- Miss recoveries that occur unexpectedly and rapidly
- Ultimately compromise the long-term outcomes their plans were designed to achieve
When you have a sound, well-designed plan, volatility is not the risk. Reacting to volatility is.
What This Moment Is Teaching Us
If there is value in today’s environment – and there is – it lies in this:
It reinforces the futility of building investment policy around current events.
Markets do not reward anxiety – They reward discipline.
Historically, markets do not compensate reaction – They compensate patience.
And markets have historically transferred wealth from those who act on fear…to those who remain aligned with a thoughtful plan.
Our Guidance
At moments like this, our role is not to predict outcomes. It is to provide clarity, perspective, and discipline.
Which leads to a simple directive:
- Stay aligned with your plan
- Discount the noise
- Maintain perspective
- Allow time – and markets – to reward patience
Closing Thought
Periods of heightened uncertainty test conviction. But they also reaffirm what has been true:
There have historically been few (if any) asset classes (or any financial vehicles) that have generated real wealth as reliably and as effortlessly as have mainstream American common stocks.
We believe the most reliable path to long-term financial success and capturing the premium returns of common stocks is not reacting to the world as it unfolds – but remaining committed to a plan designed to endure it.
As always, we are here to guide you through it – with clarity, discipline, and confidence.
Best regards,
Carl J. Zuckerberg, CFP®, AIF®, CIMA®
Principal, Chief Investment Strategist
PS – Make sure to look for Brendan McEwan’s upcoming RZH Insights which outlines our approach and philosophy regarding how to best invest in equities over time.
[1] Yahoo! Finance. Decline calculated using BTC as measured from October 6, 2025 ($126,198) through February 28, 2026 ($63,062).
[2] “Financial researcher warns of double-digit unemployment, stock market crash if AI works”. Noah Weidner. February 23, 2026.
[3] Yahoo! Finance. One ounce of silver as measured on January 30, 2026; high of $117.79 down to $76.03.
[4] “The Private-Credit Industry’s Trouble: Surging Redemptions, Slower Fundraising.” Wall Street Journal. March 26, 2026.
[5] Nick Shirley.
[6] Yahoo! Finance. “US Stock Market” 5% decline calculated using performance of Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (“VOO”) from January 1, 2026 ($627.13) through March 31, 2026 ($597.55). “Doubling over three years” calculated using performance of VOO from October 12, 2022 ($312.90) through December 31, 2025 ($627.13). Investors cannot directly purchase an index.
[7] Yahoo! Finance. S&P 500 Index closed at 7,002.28. Investors cannot directly purchase an index.