RZH Insights: The More Things Change, the More the Stock Market Stays the Same

June 25, 2025

It’s hard to believe, but it’s been a year since Donald Trump and Joe Biden stood on stage in Atlanta, on June 27, 2024, for what would become their first – and only – debate.

What followed reshaped the American political and cultural landscape in ways few could have predicted. Since then, the national conversation has been dominated by words like “chaos” and “turmoil”. Cries of “this time it’s different” rained down from the pundits. It’s easy to understand why many felt this way when you consider the myriad events during the past 12 months:

Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential election
Donald Trump survives two assassination attempts
A global stock market decline wipes out $6.4 Trillion¹
Climate Crisis hits new highs with catastrophic global natural disasters
Ukraine–Russia conflict intensifies
Israel-Hamas conflict continues
Donald Trump decisively wins the presidency
AI reshapes business and threatens millions of jobs
Elon Musk and DOGE turn DC agencies inside-out
President Trump imposes unprecedented tariffs
The S&P 500 index falls 21% in less than three months²
President Trump calls for the removal of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
Moody’s downgrades U.S. debt rating as national debt levels hit all-time high³
ICE raids and deportations divide America
Active-duty Marines deployed on U.S. soil to manage riots in Los Angeles
Israel attacks Iran
“No Kings” Day protests sweep the country
America enters the Israel-Iran conflict by bombing Iranian nuclear sites

The uncertainty, fear, and alarming headlines have been so overwhelming that I felt compelled to reflect on their emotional and psychological toll – in this recent newsletter, where I wrote about the impact these events have had on our clients, on me, and on our firm.

And yet, over arguably one of the most chaotic, emotionally charged and unpredictable 12-month periods in recent history, the S&P 500 rose 13.3%!⁴ An annual return ABOVE historical averages.⁵

How is that even possible?

The answer, as I’ve said countless times, and with deep conviction, is remarkably simple:

This time isn’t different: stock prices follow earnings – not headlines.

Great companies adapt. They find ways to navigate challenges, innovate through adversity, and create long-term value for shareholders. Over time, the stock market isn’t reacting to the noise of headlines – it’s responding to the enduring profitability of the companies it reflects.

So, the S&P 500 rose 13.3%, care to take a guess as to how much corporate earnings rose? Up 13.4%.⁶ Coincidence? Hardly!

As evidenced by this chart, this dynamic has been true for over 80 years. Stock prices follow earnings. The market doesn’t rise because the world is calm – it rises because great businesses keep delivering results. That’s the power of disciplined investing. That’s the power of focusing on fundamentals and having a plan to carry you through.

In other good news, the past 12 months also saw positive developments in several other high-profile areas:

Overall Inflation (CPI) – down 27%⁷
Price of Oil – down 20%⁸
Price of Eggs – down 25%⁹
Average price of a Taylor Swift concert ticket – down 29%¹⁰
Price of Bitcoin – up 56%¹¹

YOUR FUTURE IS OUR MISSION

All of us at RZH work tirelessly to protect you and your loved ones. We will get through this together and continue to prosper. We’ll continue to carefully manage your plan behind the scenes, so please try to live tomorrow like you lived today – you’ve earned and deserve it.

Best regards,

Carl J. Zuckerberg, CFP^®, AIF^®, CIMA^®

Principal, Chief Investment Strategist

[1] “$6.4 Trillion Stock Wipeout Has Traders Fearing ‘Great Unwind’ is Just Starting”. Bloomberg News. August 8, 2024.

[2] Performance of S&P 500 Index as measured from intraday high (6,147) on February 19, 2025, through intraday low (4,835) on April 7, 2025. Yahoo Finance. Investors cannot directly purchase an index.

[3] Moody’s downgrades United States credit rating, citing growth in government debt. CNBC. May 16, 2025.

[4] S&P 500 Total Return as measured from June 25, 2024, through June 24, 2025. YCharts.

[5] Historical annualized return of S&P 500 Index of 10.47% as measured from June 1, 1925, through June 1, 2025, assuming dividend reinvestment. DQYDJ.com.

[6] S&P 500 Trailing Twelve-Month (TTM) Earnings from March 31, 2024, through March 31, 2025. YCharts.

[7] “Current US Inflation Rates: 2000-2025”. Inflation decline measured from May 31, 2024, through May 31, 2025. US Inflation Calculator, CoinNews Media Group.

[8] Crude Oil Mercantile Exchange pricing measured June 27, 2024, through June 24, 2025. Yahoo Finance.

[9] “Retail price of eggs (grade A, large) in the United States from 1995 to 2024”. Statista. January 31, 2025.

[10] Average price of Taylor Swift ticket price as measured from June 2024 through June 2025 according to CW33.com and SimpleBeen.com.

[11] Bitcoin (BTC) return as measured from June 27, 2024, through June 24, 2025. Yahoo Finance.

Important Disclosures

RZH Insights – Protecting Yourself from Fraud

June 16, 2025

Fraud and financial scams are becoming increasingly common, and even the most vigilant individuals can become targets. Understanding the risks and taking proactive measures can help safeguard your assets and personal information. Below, we outline common fraud schemes along with key steps to protect yourself.

Common Fraud Schemes & Warning Signs

1. Phishing Scams (Email & Text Fraud)

Example: A client received an email appearing to be from their bank, requesting account verification via a link. The email led to a fake website designed to steal login credentials.

Warning Signs:

Emails or texts with urgent language (e.g., “Your account will be locked!”).
Links that direct you to an unfamiliar website.
Unexpected requests for personal information.

How to Protect Yourself:

Never click on links in unsolicited emails or texts; go directly to the company’s website.
Verify the sender’s email address carefully.
If in doubt, call the institution using a known phone number.

2. Social Security & Government Impersonation Scams

Example: A caller claimed to be from the Social Security Administration (SSA), stating that the recipient’s SSN had been compromised and needed verification immediately.

Warning Signs:

Calls or messages claiming you must verify personal details immediately.
Threats of arrest, account suspension, or legal action.
Requests for payment via gift cards, wire transfers, or cryptocurrency.

How to Protect Yourself:

The SSA, IRS, or other government agencies will never call asking for personal info or payments.
Hang up and report the call to www.ssa.gov or the FTC.
Never share personal information over the phone unless you initiated the contact.

3. Fake Tech Support Scams

Example: A pop-up appeared on a person’s computer warning them of a virus and urging them to call “Microsoft Support.” A scammer convinced them to allow remote access and stole financial information.

Warning Signs:

Unexpected pop-ups warning of a virus and asking you to call a number.
Callers claiming to be from Microsoft, Apple, or Google offering to “fix” your device.
Requests for remote access or payment for unnecessary services.

How to Protect Yourself:

Legitimate tech companies will never proactively reach out about issues.
Never allow remote access to someone you don’t know.
Restart your computer and run a virus scan instead of engaging with pop-ups.

4. Fake Check & Overpayment Scams

Example: A seller on Facebook Marketplace was sent a Zelle payment for more than the item’s price and asked to send back the difference. The payment bounced after the seller returned the difference, leaving them responsible for the lost funds.

Warning Signs:

A buyer sends a check or Zelle for more than the agreed price.
Requests to return excess money via wire transfer or gift cards.
Checks that take a long time to clear (often fake).

How to Protect Yourself:

Never accept overpayments
Wait for funds to fully clear before withdrawing or sending funds.
Always verify the recipient and use caution when sending money electronically

5. Romance & Online Relationship Scams

Example: A client met someone on a dating site who quickly professed love and asked for money to help with an emergency. They later discovered the entire relationship was a scam.

Warning Signs:

A new online connection quickly becomes serious and emotional.
They always have an excuse for why they can’t meet in person.
Requests for money due to a sudden “emergency.”

How to Protect Yourself:

Be skeptical of online relationships that escalate quickly.
Never send money to someone you haven’t met in person.
Reverse image search their photos to check if they appear elsewhere online.

Key Steps to Protect Yourself from Fraud

Enable Two-Factor Authentication (2FA): Add an extra layer of security to your email, bank accounts, and financial institutions.

Enroll in a Credit Monitoring Service: Services like Equifax, TransUnion, or Experian can alert you to suspicious activity and prevent identity theft.

Place a Security Freeze on Your Credit: This restricts access to your credit report, making it harder for fraudsters to open accounts in your name. You can unfreeze it when needed.

Equifax – www.equifax.com
Experian – www.experian.com
TransUnion – www.transunion.com

Be Cautious with Personal Information: Never share sensitive details like your Social Security number, date of birth, banking information, or passwords unless you are 100% sure of the recipient. Never email this information unless using an encrypted or secure method.

Verify Requests for Money or Information: If a request seems urgent or unusual, take a step back (talk to a friend or loved one) and confirm its legitimacy before acting.

Final Takeaway: Stay Vigilant, Stay Secure

Scammers rely on urgency, secrecy, and emotional manipulation to trick people into acting quickly. This is not an exhaustive list of fraud schemes or protective measures, but it provides a strong foundation for keeping your personal and financial information secure. By staying informed and taking proactive security measures, you can significantly reduce your risk of falling victim to fraud. If you ever have concerns or suspect fraudulent activity, reach out to us immediately. We take the security of your financial future seriously and are always here to help.

Warmest Regards,

Lauren Rowland CFP^®CDFA^®

RZH Insights: A True Test of Investor Resolve

May 13, 2025

What a remarkable time to be an investor. Depending on your perspective, the past five weeks have been either deeply unsettling or profoundly instructive. They’ve brought waves of panic – but also powerful reminders of timeless investment truths.

For me personally, this has been one of the most emotionally taxing periods of my 33-year career. It’s not the volatility – we’ve seen plenty of that before. What’s been most challenging is the level of fear and anxiety expressed by clients, even those with solid plans and well-constructed portfolios. The conversations I’ve had in recent weeks have often been emotional, very personal, sometimes painful, and a real test of my own resilience as an advisor.

Over the past month, markets have tempted investors into making the classic and costly mistake: abandoning their long-term strategy under the belief that “this time is different.” If you’re a client or friend of RZH, you know our firm is grounded in conviction – conviction in our disciplined planning and investment process. I have unwavering confidence in the great companies we invest in to navigate through the perennial problems, challenges and black swans that come our way, no matter how chaotic or unique they may appear. And while I have more tempered faith in government responses, I believe strongly in the resilience and adaptability of the global economy over time.

At RZH, we believe success in investing demands discipline, emotional detachment, and a long-term mindset. That doesn’t mean ignoring reality – far from it. Unpredictability and disorder seem to be embedded in this administration’s approach to policy and negotiation. My newsletter on April 4th recognized this and outlined our plan. The market continued falling and bottomed on April 7th. The very next day, we delivered this newsletter advocating caution and patience.

Since that low on April 7^th the S&P 500 Index has surged more than 20%¹ and the tech-oriented NASDAQ Index gained over 26%² – both delivering two years’ worth of returns in just over a month. These dramatic reversals reaffirm everything we believe in: thoughtful goal-based planning, strategic allocation, and the importance of staying the course. The best market returns often directly follow the worst, and the timing of these turnarounds is virtually impossible to predict.

Of course, we’re not declaring victory – we are far from “out of the woods.” But we are more confident than ever in the durability of our investment philosophy and the strength of our client relationships. Our mission remains clear: to make market volatility irrelevant to your financial security, and to help you embrace life fully, supported by a plan built to weather any storm.

We don’t know what the next five weeks will bring – let alone the next five days. But what we do know is this: everyone at RZH is prepared, steadfast, and honored to be your trusted partner through it all.

Best regards,

Carl J. Zuckerberg, CFP^®, AIF^®, CIMA^®

Principal, Chief Investment Strategist

[1] Performance of the S&P 500 Index as measured from the intraday low (4,835.04) on April 7, 2025, through market close (5,844.18) on May 12, 2025.

[2] Performance of the NASDAQ Index as measured from the intraday low (14,784.03) on April 7, 2025, through market close (18,708.34) on May 12, 2025.

Important Disclosures

RZH Special Announcement – RZH and Carl Zuckerberg Awarded Industry Honors Again!

May 7, 2025

We are thrilled to share two meaningful industry recognitions recently awarded to RZH Advisors and Carl Zuckerberg!

RZH Advisors has been named to the USA Today Best Financial Advisory Firms ranking for 2025¹. This ranking highlights top-performing firms nationwide, selected through a combination of peer recommendations and industry research.

Additionally, Carl Zuckerberg has been recognized as a Forbes|SHOOK 2025 Best-in-State Wealth Advisor ² for the seventh year in a row! Forbes Best-In-State Wealth Advisors list, developed by SHOOK Research, evaluates advisors based on a rigorous methodology that includes in-person interviews, industry experience, compliance records, and client retention data.

These honors are a reflection of something we never take for granted: the trust you place in us. We are deeply grateful for the relationships we’ve built and the opportunity to guide our clients through life’s most important financial decisions.

We are proud to share these milestones with our clients and friends and remain even more committed to the work ahead.

With sincere appreciation,

Your Friends at RZH

[1] USA Today Best Financial Advisory Firms 2025 was published on April 22, 2025, in partnership with USA Today and STATISTA. Companies were awarded based on performance and market appreciation, evaluated in part via an independent survey among over 30,000 clients, industry experts, and constituents. In total, the top 500 firms were included in the ranking. No compensation was exchanged in consideration for this ranking.

[2] Forbes 2025 Best-in-State Wealth Advisors was published on April 8, 2025, in partnership with Forbes and SHOOK research based on data as of December 31, 2024. Full ranking methodology can be found here. No compensation was exchanged in consideration for this ranking.

Important Disclosures

RZH Insights – The Market Does Not Wait For Certainty

April 8, 2025

Yesterday, in just 35 minutes, the S&P 500 launched upward 8.5%.¹ This was one of the most rapid moves in recent memory. This aggressive turnaround was ignited simply by a rumor that President Trump may delay the implementation of new tariffs by 90 days.²

The fact that markets reacted so sharply – based solely on unconfirmed speculation – underscores just how sensitive investors are to ongoing trade policy developments. Had these rumors been confirmed rather than dismissed, it’s likely the rally would have continued higher.

This is a powerful reminder of why staying invested is so critical, and how attempting to time the markets can quickly prove detrimental. Historically, some of the market’s largest gains have come immediately after its steepest declines.

Selling and “waiting for the dust to settle” can often leave you “sitting in the dust”.

As always, we’re here to answer any questions and to discuss how your portfolio is positioned to weather this storm.

Best Regards,

Brendan McEwan, CFP^®, CIMA^®

Senior Financial Advisor

[1] Yahoo.com/finance. S&P 500 Index as measured from 9:42am to 10:17am on April 7, 2025.

[2] “White House shoots down rumors of 90-day tariff pause as Trump allies brush off recession fears”. Canal, Alexandra. Yahoo Finance. April 7, 2025.

Important Disclosures

RZH Insights: The Hurricane Has Come Ashore

April 4, 2025

For much of this year, the markets have been hinting at turbulence on the horizon. Like seasoned meteorologists, pundits have speculated about the storm’s trajectory. We’ve seen early warnings…there’s been heavy surf, gusty winds and even the occasional thunderstorm. Yet the skies stayed mostly sunny, and it looked as though the “tariff storm” would perhaps drift out to sea. Then, on Wednesday night, the lingering low-pressure system suddenly intensified into a full-blown hurricane and turned directly towards us!

What’s going to happen next?

The honest answer is… no one truly knows – not even the policymakers steering the ship in Washington! As I surveyed the financial media earlier this week many “experts” claimed their “inside sources” said President Trump would take a moderate, less aggressive, approach to tariffs. The stock market rallied three days prior, forecasting nothing more than a passing squall.

What do we do?

Feelings of worry, bouts of anxiety, even a sense of panic are all normal reactions. Frustration and regret are also common as we think “how did we not see this coming”. It’s completely natural to ask, “what should we do now” and “how do we protect ourselves”. These emotions often drive the impulse to act, to “do something” in hopes of regaining control or limiting damage. But in moments like these, taking rash action can often do more harm than good.

Fortunately, clients of RZH have already asked – and we have answered – these tough questions well in advance by building hurricane-resistant portfolios. Just as homeowners along the Gulf Coast build their properties with concrete walls, storm shutters, and metal roofs, we’ve helped fortify your financial house against storms like this one. And like any storm-tested home, while you may still hear the howling winds or feel the ground tremble, our approach aims to provide stability where it matters most. Yes, there may be some terrifying moments – perhaps even the urge to flee – but history has taught us that stepping outside during a hurricane is almost always the wrong move.

History has also shown us that we shouldn’t try to outsmart the hurricane and abandon our thoughtfully-crafted portfolios – designed well before the storm appeared on the radar. They have been engineered and stress-tested against past storms (using the financial plan, cash flow models and Monte Carlo simulations). They are built with the highest quality materials (investment grade bonds and blue-chip stocks) and have ample rations to maintain life for extended periods of time (years’ worth of cash and equivalents). The reason we take such care in crafting a well-diversified, disciplined investment plan is precisely for moments like this. Volatility isn’t a surprise – it’s an expected part of the journey.

No two hurricanes are exactly alike, but one truth remains: they all eventually pass. This one will too.

At RZH, we hear your concerns and deeply understand the emotional weight of uncertainty. We’re here for you – not just as advisors, but as friends. If you have questions or want to talk through your specific situation, please don’t hesitate to reach out.

While these times may feel unsettling for all of us, we’re grateful for the opportunity to stand with you – now and always. On behalf of the entire RZH team, thank you for your continued trust and friendship.

Best regards,

Carl J. Zuckerberg, CFP^®, AIF^®, CIMA^®

Principal, Chief Investment Strategist

Important Disclosures

RZH Special Announcement: RZH Advisors & Carl Zuckerberg Awarded Top Industry Honors

April 2, 2025

RZH Advisors is pleased to announce that we have been recognized in the WealthManagement.com RIA Edge 100 for 2025¹ further underscoring our position as a leader in the wealth management space. According to WealthManagement.com, RIA Edge 100 was developed “to surface a representative group of well-managed firms that are reinvesting in their businesses, maintaining a high level of client service and, as we say here, growing by design, not by default.” (As of 2023, there were over 15,000 RIAs (registered investment advisors) in the United States according to the Securities and Exchange Commission.)²

Additionally, we are excited to announce that Carl Zuckerberg, Founding Principal, has been named to Barron’s prestigious list of the Top 1200 Advisors for 2025³. This recognition reflects Carl’s dedication and commitment to delivering outstanding wealth management service to clients. Barron’s states, “The goal is to shine a spotlight on the nation’s best financial advisors, with an eye toward raising standards in the industry” and we couldn’t be prouder of Carl on this accomplishment! This is Carl’s seventh time being featured on this list.⁴ (As of 2023, there were approximately 321,000 financial advisors in the United States according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.)⁵

“We are grateful to receive these prestigious recognitions,” said Carl. “Being named to Barron’s Top 1200 Advisors and earning a place in the WealthManagement.com RIA Edge 100 is a testament to our team’s dedication, skillset, and the trust our clients place in us.”

RZH Advisors remains committed to providing top-tier financial advice and bespoke wealth management solutions to its clients. These recognitions further validate the firm’s mission to optimize and safeguard our clients’ wealth, empowering them to live life to the fullest while enriching the lives of those they care for.

To review the complete Barrons 2025 Top 1200 Advisors, including important ranking methodology, please click HERE.

To review the complete WealthManagement.com RIA Edge 100 for 2025, including important selection methodology, please click HERE.

Important Disclosures

[1] WealthManagement.com “RIA Edge 100 for 2025” was published on March 27, 2025, and developed by Wealthmanagement.com’s WMIQ research team in partnership with ISS MI using data from its Discovery Data MarketPro platform. Qualifying firms were limited to SEC-registered investment advisory firms that provide financial planning services, have high-net-worth individuals as more than half of their client base and manage at least $500 million in assets. The RIA Edge 100 is not a hierarchy or ranking, nor is it a subjective “best advisor” list. It is not based on business relationships, influencer status or social media popularity. Firms cannot apply for the list, and there is no cost to be included.

[2] “There were more RIAs in 2023 than ever before, but what does a typical firm look like?” InvestmentNews.com. June 21, 2024.

[3] Barron’s “2025 Top 1200 Advisor Rankings by State” was published on March 10, 2025, based on assets under management, revenue produced for the firm, regulatory record, quality of practice, and philanthropic work as of September 30, 2024. The data used in this ranking is provided by individual advisors in conjunction with regulatory databases. No compensation was exchanged in consideration for this ranking

[4] Carl Zuckerberg has appeared in the Barron’s Top 1200 Advisors list in 2009, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2024 and 2025.

[5] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook, Personal Financial Advisors. August, 29, 2024.

RZH Insights: “How Do I Invest with Trump as President!”

March 7, 2025

Important Note: The following is not intended as a political commentary. My goal is to present statistical facts and relevant historical depictions. The thoughts and recommendations presented below are my own, stem from 34 years of experience guiding investors through numerous crises, and do not necessarily reflect the views of anyone else at RZH Advisors.

Unsurprisingly, we’ve been receiving a lot of calls about this – especially after President Trump’s address to Congress on Tuesday, March 4th.

I understand the concern. How can you possibly make sense of the news, let alone craft an investment strategy, when confronted with headlines like these from before and after the election:

“If Trump Wins, It’s the End of the World As We Know It”¹

“A Trump Win Would Sink All Boats”²

“Donald Trump Presidency ‘Would Be Dangerous,’ Economists Warn”³

“President Trump Would Be a Global Calamity”⁴

“Donald Trump wins presidential election, plunging US into uncertain future”⁵

“Donald Trump’s Victory Is a Disaster for America and the World”⁶

“The Presidential Election…An American Tragedy”⁷

“Trump Triumphs: A Shocking Upset That Shakes the World”⁸

“The unthinkable has happened: America elects Donald Trump”⁹

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
- Yogi Berra

Unfortunately, we don’t have a crystal ball. When faced with headlines like these, it can be difficult to remain optimistic. Given this level of fear and concern, it’s understandable that you might consider making a change to your portfolio.

That said, I have a confession…the headlines above are not from this presidential election but from 2016, following Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton. As you can see, similar fears and concerns have surfaced before.

I even wrote a newsletter on February 14, 2017 titled “Trump Fear…Is it time to change my strategy?” In that newsletter I include this article, written by the NY Times, with a timeless message and which could easily be republished today without any edits.

Even with an abundance of fear, during President Trump’s first term, the S&P 500 rose about 83%, delivering an annualized return of 16%. Remarkably, volatility was below average during these four years, even with a 20% market decline in 2018 and a 34% drop in early 2020.¹⁰

Now, at this point, half of my readers are probably unhappy with me.

So, for the other half, let’s rewind again – this time to Joe Biden’s presidency. I remember receiving the same anxious calls back then from the other half of my client base. Yet, the S&P 500 still rose about 65% under Biden, with an annualized return just under 13%. ¹¹

Both presidents oversaw above-average market returns. How did this happen when the last eight years have inarguably seen the most partisan political environment, and fear of the other, in our lifetime?

I submit that it wasn’t about politics or those in charge, but rather due to the American spirit, innovation, and our resiliency. It was about the relentless drive of great American companies to adapt, strategize, innovate and create value – regardless of political turbulence or global uncertainty. This is why the mantra “Don’t mix politics with your portfolio” is more relevant than ever.

“This Time Is Different…”

These are considered the four most dangerous words in investing. The media is screaming that we must take action and “do something.” The urge to react – to protect oneself – is powerful and is driven by a feeling of fear and helplessness. I understand this. It’s one of the hardest temptations I’ve had to resist to be a disciplined investor and successful for my clients.

“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble.
It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.”
– Mark Twain

At a time like this, the fundamental question is: Are you an Investor or a Speculator?

If your investment approach is rooted in a long-term plan – one that we’ve carefully crafted and refined together – then you’re an Investor.
If your strategy shifts based on headlines, economic predictions, or market volatility, then you’re a Speculator.

Here’s the key difference:

Investors stick to a well-thought-out plan, regardless of market noise.
Speculators react – or worse, try to predict what happens next.

All of that being said, what I think I know for sure is that there is going to be a significant amount of volatility over the next year as global markets analyze and digest the firehose of policy coming out of Washington. President Trump promised as much in his speech on Tuesday when he said “Will there be some pain? Yes…”

When Is It Actually Time to Move to Cash?

In my 34-year career, there have been only two moments where I seriously considered moving clients out of stocks and into cash:

The 2008 Financial Crisis – A truly existential threat to the global financial system that almost incinerated world financial markets.

Early 2020 (COVID-19) – A completely unknown threat with potentially catastrophic mortal consequences.

In 2008, we took moderate action. In 2020, we held tight – and ended up buying near the bottom.

This moment is not presenting like 2008 or 2020. History tells us not to speculate. Let RZH help you remain an Investor.

The Bottom Line – You Can’t Predict the Future, You Can Only Plan For It

Markets have experienced a Trump Presidency before and come out the other side ahead. We understand and are sensitive to your concerns. In particular, I tremendously appreciate your calls, perspectives and the insights from our clients in the business community who are on the front lines of the tariff battles.

We have carefully crafted our client’s financial plans to weather economic uncertainty (like what we are experiencing today) and to achieve their most cherished objectives. When doing this we:

Strategically allocate to cash, Treasurys, and short-term bonds to cover years of financial needs – keeping multiple years of cash flow “out of harm’s way.”
Focus on implementing probability-based strategies
Own high-quality investments, historically known for handling volatility
Take profits off the table during the good times, before the storm hits
And perhaps most importantly, we constantly remind our clients that the worst plan is the one not followed.

I know this is a difficult time for our country. We stand with our clients and are here for you, no matter what. Together, we’ll navigate through this turbulence and emerge stronger on the other side.

It’s an honor to be a part of your financial journey. At RZH, we all embrace the significant responsibility of managing your wealth so that you can live your best life and protect those you love.

Please don’t hesitate to reach out. We’re here to discuss your concerns and ensure your plan remains resilient.

Warmest regards,

Carl J. Zuckerberg, CFP®, AIF®, CIMA®
Principal, Chief Investment Strategist

[1] The Daily Beast. October 25, 2016.

[2] The New York Times. October 31, 2016.

[3] The Guardian. August 3, 2016.

[4] Foreign Policy. March 7, 2016.

[5] The Guardian. November 9, 2016.

[6]Slate. November 9, 2016.

[7] The New Yorker. November 9, 2016.

[8] TIME Magazine. November 9, 2016.

[9] The Washington Post. November 9, 2016.

[10] YCharts. S&P 500 January 20, 2017 to January 20, 2021.

[11] YCharts. S&P 500 January 20, 2021 to January 20, 2025.

Important Disclosures

RZH Insights – Market Predictions vs. Reality: What You Need to Know

February 27, 2025

It’s prediction season again and many of the largest banks on Wall Street have come out with their 2025 stock market forecasts. Recently, Goldman Sachs made a bold prediction: the S&P 500 would deliver just a 3% annual return over the next decade¹. Considering that historical returns have averaged closer to 11% since 1945², this forecast has come as a surprise and led investors to wonder what this might mean for their portfolios.

Before reacting to such projections, it’s crucial to take a step back. Financial forecasts, even from well-known Wall Street institutions, are far from crystal balls. Why? Because they’re based on a mix of current data and future assumptions, which are largely unpredictable and ever-changing.

Let’s explore why financial forecasts are often unreliable, the motivations behind these predictions, and, most importantly, how to stay focused on what truly matters for your financial future.

Why Financial Forecasts Are Often Unreliable

Forecasters – even the largest, most recognizable investment banks – base their predictions on data available today, combined with assumptions regarding future economic trends, interest rates, corporate earnings, and global events. If history has shown us anything, it’s that the world economy and financial markets can change quickly and dramatically, often in ways that are impossible to foresee.

Take a moment to think about it: Did anyone see the pandemic coming? Or the tech boom that followed? And these are just a couple of examples from the recent past. Nobody, not even the best minds in finance, with vast resources at their disposal, can account for every twist and turn in a dynamic global economy. Goldman Sachs’ current projection might accurately reflect today’s landscape…although even this is debatable…, but in a decade, a year, or even a month, the landscape may be vastly, and unforeseeably, different. (Pre-COVID everyone knew AI was in development, but few predicted its impact, adoption, and success. Two years ago, no one had even heard of ChatGPT. In February 2020, Nvidia stock (a maker of chips for the AI industry) traded around $5 per share; as of year-end 2024, it traded around $134, up almost 27x.)³

Each year, major banks release forecasts for the annual return of the S&P 500 Index. However, these predictions often miss the mark, resembling more of a dart-throwing exercise than precise analysis. Over the last 7 years, the median forecast return for the S&P 500 from twenty of the largest banks and asset managers has not even been within 10% of actual returns, with forecasts ranging from underestimations of 26% to overestimations of 21%.⁴

In 2024, major banks projected S&P 500 returns ranging from -12% to +13%, with a median estimate of 2.2%. However, the actual return for the year was 25.02%. ^4,5 The closest prediction underestimated the real outcome by nearly half, while the most inaccurate forecast missed the mark by a staggering 37%.⁴ If you had based your investment decisions on these projections, your portfolio’s performance could have been drastically different, highlighting the risks of relying on such forecasts.

The Motivations Behind Forecasts

“Asset bubbles and the desperate search for profits amid negative rates aren’t laughing matters.  
Be afraid.” ⁶
-Bloomberg, 2019

This quote comes from an article published on December 19, 2019. Since then, the S&P 500 Index has risen by over 100%.⁵ It’s essential to recognize the incentives behind financial predictions and headlines such as the one above. Analysts and financial publications aim to generate clicks and engagement, not necessarily to provide accurate predictions. Articles titled “No One Knows How the S&P 500 Will Perform This Year” are less likely to attract attention compared to bold, specific forecasts.

Some forecasters employ a strategy of making multiple, widely varying predictions. This approach allows them to highlight whichever prediction comes closest to reality while ignoring the others.

In fact, a few weeks after Goldman Sachs made their prediction that the market would return 3% annually over the next decade, their chief US equity strategist, David Kostin, forecast that the S&P 500 would hit 6,500 by the end of 2025.⁷ This represents about a 10.5% gain from December 31, 2024 values. It would be difficult for this prediction and the original 3% prediction to both be accurate.

Focus on Long-Term Strategy, Not Short-Term Forecasts

Instead of trying to adjust your portfolio for every prediction, we remind clients to focus on what you can control:

1. Your Investment Goals: Set clear, achievable objectives based on your needs, not market conditions.

2. Your Time Horizon: Remember, time is the market’s greatest equalizer. The longer you stay invested, the more you can benefit from compounding returns.

3. Diversification: Build a diversified portfolio that spreads risk across different asset classes, sectors, and geographies. This cushions you from the impacts of any single market forecast or downturn.

4. Discipline: Sticking to your financial plan by following time tested strategies and investment management principles during times of maximum uncertainty.

5. Patience: Tolerating interim volatility allowing markets to complete their full cycle. This allows different asset classes to benefit from historical performance patterns. RZH maintains sufficient levels of cash and bonds to meet your needs so you will never be a “forced seller” in an unsavory stock market period.

Stay Disciplined

Today we are constantly bombarded with new information telling us our current financial environment is “unprecedented”⁸ and questioning “What if this time is different?”⁹

When you encounter the latest forecast or catchy headline, remember: while analyst market predictions may change, a well-crafted investment strategy should not be altered to accommodate them. By sticking to a long-term, disciplined approach, you can build wealth without the stress of trying to predict where the market will go next. Our goal is to help you enjoy life to the fullest, knowing you have a plan that makes any headline or sensationalist prediction irrelevant to your financial future.

Best regards,